As I grow older, I pay less attention to what men say. I just watch what they do.
July 12, 2023
The enclosed chart of Fed funds is illustrative of what enabled the outperformance of active managers at the start of the modern investment era and what subsequently penalized their performance for the last 30 years. The cause: it was the dramatic rise and fall in interest rates. The chart shows, the secular direction of...
June 06, 2023
It was easily 30 years ago … probably longer. I was sitting in a client’s house in Exeter, New Hampshire. My client was a man in his late sixties who had been an M.I.T. graduate. As such, he had an elevated level of self-confidence. I handed him a sheet of his holdings which showed profit and losses. It had been a difficult...
May 08, 2023
As we all know, it is difficult to go against a crowd’s belief. Religious scrolls are filled with stories of those who did … and died. Such conflict often crosses over from religious to secular situations. Such a juxtaposition occurred in the 17thcentury as Galileo hypothesized that the earth revolved around the sun...
April 10, 2023
With most mistakes we make in life, we have no idea of what the immediate outcome will be. There’s just a feeling it will be negative. But in the investment world we often know quickly what the mistake is going to cost us. When that happens, it is unnerving because we now know that the emotional impact of losing money is 2.5x...
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