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Dave Canal's blog

Contravisory Q3 Letter to Investors

Today we share an excerpt from our recent Q3 letter to investors to provide some insight on our current bullish market perspective despite a turbulent and uncertain economic environment.  

Home Sweet Home

It's been a tough few months for the stock market but things could be worse.  While the S&P 500 has declined roughly 12% from its peak in early May, the price action overseas makes the grass look a lot greener on this side of the pond.  While we struggle domestically with high unemployment and uneven economic data, foreign markets continue to deal with those and a host of other issues, the most notable being the European sovereign debt crisis.    

Sound Familiar?

At Contravisory, we relate the bear market of 2007-2009 to that of the 1973-1974 bear market.  The extent of the decline, investor sentiment, and the breadth of the collapse are very similar.  Naturally, we have been looking back to study data from that period to provide us with clues and signals to help navigate today's market.  One fascinating piece of commentary we uncovered originated from our own research publication, ContraSignals. 

Contravisory Year-End Letter to Investors

Today we'd like to share with you our year-end letter to clients.  In it, Contravisory President Bill Noonan reflects back on 2009 and looks ahead to 2010 with great optimism.
 

Exxon Mobil Fails to Keep Pace

This week we take a look at the most widely owned stock in the equity marketplace, Exxon Mobil (XOM).  Since the March low, most Energy stocks have performed inline or better than the market, but with some exceptions.  The key energy laggards have been within the integrated oil and gas industry group and the most noteworthy is Exxon Mobil.   This large cap behemoth has struggled mightly to keep pace with the market's linear advance off the March '09 lows, and as a result, carries a bearish signal in our work.

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Do we have the capability to eliminate booms and busts in economic activity? The answer in my judgment is no, because there is no tool to change human nature. Too often people are prone to recurring bouts of optimism and pessimism.

– Alan Greenspan