So long as predictions remain popular, and are so numerous as they are today – and so long as they receive notoriety through repetition in the press and on the radio – contrary opinions will increase in importance as thinking aids. “

Bank of America recently published a chart showing the entire history of long-term interest rates. The piece was titled “The 5000-Year View of Rates & the Economic Consequences.” While not from the dawn of time, it is from the dawn of civilization starting in ancient Suma. The chart showed short- and long-term rates...

An analyst at J.P. Morgan recently wrote about Amazon, “… next year its business will exceed Walmart’s and become the largest retailer in the world.” Jeff Bezos is already one of the richest men in the world. But what is more startling; his wealth of close to $200 billion or the short timeframe in which it was created? From the time of the...

Fortunately, it is rare to see anguish on someone’s face. One day in New York, near the end of 1987, I did. The October crash was still vivid in everyone’s mind. As I opened the door of an “upstairs” trading room, I saw a friend at the far end of the long trading desk. He was standing with a phone pressed up against his head gesturing...

It’s what we all hope to own. But if you don’t know what attributes it must have, you won’t find it. First, and foremost, it should be a fairly small business run by an entrepreneur. Personal pride and creativity drive a new business. Secondly, the founder must own a significant amount of stock. Such a C.E.O. has a different mindset than an...
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