Do we have the capability to eliminate booms and busts in economic activity? The answer in my judgment is no, because there is no tool to change human nature. Too often people are prone to recurring bouts of optimism and pessimism.
September 26, 2019
“History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, But It Often Rhymes” –Mark Twain
When examining the current equity market landscape, I can’t help but think back to the late 1990s and recognize the similarities between investor psychology today and back then. While the contributing macro factors are different, the resulting investor behavior...
September 13, 2019
The current unicorn IPO market is reminiscent of the psychology used in the Trojan War. Today the hidden “soldiers” are venture capitalists, investment bankers and corporate employees. According to mythology, the “gift” to the Trojans was an 80’ wooden horse that seemingly marked the end of a ten year war. We are now ten years into a bull...
August 22, 2019
With deference to Stephen King and his horror novel “Misery,” it seemed the only appropriate name for my scrapbook. The “book” started 10 years ago when a famous hedge fund manager massively underperformed the S&P 500. Then it happened again with a well-known mutual fund manager. I sensed there was more to come. Over two, three...
July 11, 2019
When I was quite young, my father and I would go into Boston on Saturday afternoons to see my grandmother. She lived in a brownstone in the south-end across from the Greek Cathedral. As we settled in, she would give me a dollar and ask me to “go down to ‘Sam’s” and get a pound of hamburger for dinner. Sam was the butcher at the end of the...
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