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Dave Canal's blog

Facebook IPO

“In seeking to avoid the dangers of crowd action, remember that a majority opinion can be sustained.  Unanimity of opinion is more vulnerable to a contrary surprise.”

The quote above is from Contravisory founder Ed Noonan’s 10 Rules for Investing.  Considering the record amount of anticipation and speculation surrounding the recent Facebook IPO and the subsequent disappointment, this seems like a particularly good time to revisit this rule. 

Contravisory Q1 Letter to Investors

Today we share with you an excerpt from our Q1 letter to investors, recapping the first quarter and providing some insight to our current market thinking for Q2 and beyond.

The equity markets continued their winning ways in the 1st quarter as all major indices pushed higher during the period.  In fact, this was the strongest opening quarter for U.S. stocks in 14 years.  The S&P 500 Index rallied 11.8% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 8.1%.  

Contravisory Q4 Letter to Investors

Today we share with you some commentary from our Q4 letter to investors as we recap 2011 and look forward to 2012.

The year 2011 was a challenging one for your equity investors as most market indices underperformed their historical averages.  Fortunately, U.S. stocks ended the quarter on a positive note as most major indices posted double digit gains for the period. 

Contravisory Q3 Letter to Investors

Today we share an excerpt from our recent Q3 letter to investors to provide some insight on our current bullish market perspective despite a turbulent and uncertain economic environment.  

Home Sweet Home

It's been a tough few months for the stock market but things could be worse.  While the S&P 500 has declined roughly 12% from its peak in early May, the price action overseas makes the grass look a lot greener on this side of the pond.  While we struggle domestically with high unemployment and uneven economic data, foreign markets continue to deal with those and a host of other issues, the most notable being the European sovereign debt crisis.    

Sound Familiar?

At Contravisory, we relate the bear market of 2007-2009 to that of the 1973-1974 bear market.  The extent of the decline, investor sentiment, and the breadth of the collapse are very similar.  Naturally, we have been looking back to study data from that period to provide us with clues and signals to help navigate today's market.  One fascinating piece of commentary we uncovered originated from our own research publication, ContraSignals. 

Contravisory Year-End Letter to Investors

Today we'd like to share with you our year-end letter to clients.  In it, Contravisory President Bill Noonan reflects back on 2009 and looks ahead to 2010 with great optimism.
 

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During my eighty-seven years, I have witnessed a whole succession of technological revolutions. But none of them has done away with the need for character in the individual or the ability to think.”

– Bernard Baruch