Do we have the capability to eliminate booms and busts in economic activity? The answer in my judgment is no, because there is no tool to change human nature. Too often people are prone to recurring bouts of optimism and pessimism.
October 17, 2018
If we could choose a genetic gift, most of us would probably choose to be a creative genius. To be someone such as Elon Musk or Michelangelo would be perfect. Or at least, we think it would be. Who could not be happy creating something that didn’t exist before? Unfortunately, this “gift “often comes with a heavy emotional price. ...
September 11, 2018
My first experience with the speed of light was as a young caddy. As I looked across a fairway I saw a golfer hit a tee shot some distance away. The player hit the ball, finished his swing, and then – what seemed seconds later in the hot humid air – I heard a CRACK sound. I was puzzled. At the time, I didn’t know the speed of...
August 13, 2018
We like to believe we control our conscious thought. But I believe our subconscious – the “hard drive” part of our brain – is far more powerful. It not only records our experiences but is utterly ruthless in the recall of anything which impacts us negatively. My first business encounter with that was the day I received a U.S. Treasury...
July 17, 2018
The active manager cannot control his own destiny in times of high market correlation, but when correlation is a normal 26% - or lower - he can “hammer” the market. Correlation is the degree that different securities move together in tandem. The norm of 26% goes back close to a hundred years. Sudden increases in correlation are always...
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